Hogs Drift after a Strong Open
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December Lean Hogs opened higher and made the low at 84.45. Price turned higher rallied to the high at 85.50, all in the first 5-minutes of the day. It drifted the rest of the session and settled near the low at 84.85. The low was just below the Friday high at 84.575 and the high tested resistance at 85.325. Trading was subdued in the December contract as traders remain uncertain about cash market strength. Cutouts were higher at the morning report but interest was lacking in taking price higher. Maybe traders expect cutouts to falter in the afternoon as we have seen recently. Weights are above last year (at least from the last report a couple of weeks ago) and slaughter numbers are into their seasonal increase. This could be increasing supplies at a time when the Chinese are in liquidation mode sending their prices lower. This could be having an effect on prices as they likely won’t import pork especially at higher prices. This is on top of the President’s call for increasing tariffs on Chinese goods starting in November after they put the world on notice they would restrict rare earth sales creating anger towards the Chinese for doing this. There are extreme long positions in hogs and we have seen open interest decline on this recent breakdown in Hogs which could be increasing negative sentiment in the Hog complex. With the seasonals in bloom, we could see more liquidation if support fails. We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a test of resistance at 85.325 and then the declining 8-DMA now at 85.875. Resistance then comes in at 87.10. A failure from the low could see price test support at 83.325. Support then comes in at 81.70.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 104.86 as of 10/10/2025.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 99.43 as of 10/09/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 490,000, which is below last week’s 491,000 and above last year’s 468,376.
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