Grains Report 04/03/2020

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on mostly fund selling tied to news that Russia would offer Wheat into the local market from its strategic reserve rather than limit exports. Domestic bases levels remain elevated, so there was good buying seen on the way down. The Coronavirus and stay at home orders in many states have created a rush of buying of Wheat products and have caught the mills short bought. They have been very active in buying Wheat in domestic cash markets, especially in the Great Plains, and basis levels have moved higher. Restrictions are also being placed on Ukraine Wheat exports. It remains dry in most growing areas near the Black Sea. The dry weather pattern continues in these areas and must still be watched although it is too early for any kind of market reaction. Russia has improved some export restrictions on grains for the current marketing year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see a dry week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 516 May. Support is at 539, 534, and 525 May, with resistance at 550, 564, and 575 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 458, 433, and 425 May. Support is at 461, 448, and 440 May, with resistance at 477, 480, and 483 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 516, 501, and 485 May. Support is at 515, 510, and 503 May, and resistance is at 527, 531, and 542 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher as the old crop market continued its march to higher price levels in the hopes of rationing demand. The domestic situation remains tight. Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. Mills and exporters are calling previously bought Rice to keep the market supplied. This is happening mostly in Arkansas as Gulf Coastal areas are mostly sold out of Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1450 and 1486 May. Support is at 1414, 1395, and 1380 May, with resistance at 1436, 1448, and 1460 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn mixed as the trade war between Saudi Arabia and Russia hurt domestic ethanol production and the effects of the Coronavirus remain part of the market. President Trump announced that he had brokered a deal between the two sides to dramatically cut back on Crude Oil production and futures rallied on the news. However, futures fell back to close mixed on the realization that Ethanol demand will not improve in the short term either way because people are not driving much due to the Coronavirus. Prices for Crude Oil and also gasoline and heating oil are at extremely low levels and ethanol plants in the US are shutting down or greatly reducing run times. Ethanol stocks are increasing even with the reduced processing due to the lack of driving in the US. That means a lot less Corn demand. The Saudis are using the cheaper price to punish Russia for balking at cutting production a few weeks ago but also to eliminate competition from shale oil producers in the US and Canada as well as bio fuels producers around the world. The loss in ethanol demand inside the US is very large and remains a major problem for all involved in the marketplace.
Overnight News: China bought 567,000 tons of US Corn, including 63,000 tons for the current marketing year and 504,000 tons for the next marketing year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 332, 330, and 326 May, and resistance is at 343, 346, and 350 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 258, 252, and 248 March, and resistance is at 270, 274, and 279 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower on demand ideas and despite logistical problems in South America. Soybean Meal closed lower. Soybean Oil closed a little higher. Both the Soybeans and Soybean Meal markets were supported in part by the lack of ethanol production here in the US. Little or no ethanol production means little or no production of DDG as well, so a potential competitor to Soybean Meal in domestic and world markets has been effectively removed. Logistical problems caused by the Coronavirus in South America also played a major role. Argentina and Brazil are having trouble getting trucks from farms to crusher and exporters. The problems are especially in Argentina, where several towns have moved to block traffic in defiance of federal orders. Exports are not supposed to be affected, but there are signs that transportation inside the countries has become very difficult. None of that seems to matter these days as President Trump has declared that the worst of the Coronavirus is coming in the next two weeks and that Americans should stay home though the end of the month. Also, the Real and the Peso remain weaker against the US Dollar. China is still buying in South America and not here.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 850 and 824 May. Support is at 855, 852, and 832 May, and resistance is at 872, 876, and 892 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 303.00 and 300.00 May. Support is at 307.00, 304.00, and 300.00 May, and resistance is at 317.00, 322.00, and 329.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2570, 2520, and 2470 May, with resistance at 2690, 2740, and 2760 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower in follow through selling. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Palm Oil was lower on ideas of slow demand. Production is also dropping. Workers are not in the fields or the processors due to the Coronavirus but buyers are not buying as import have been locked down in many cases.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 461.00, 460.00, and 457.00 May, with resistance at 467.00, 470.00, and 473.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2300, 2270, and 2190 June, with resistance at 2400, 2460, and 2480 June.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Apr 2
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended March 29, 2020. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 3096.5 738.4 368.5 389.8 47.2 1346.4 404.7 95.2 7063.4
Week Ago 3185.7 674.8 373.9 383.4 46.8 1333.4 384.6 95.1 7013.7
Year Ago 3091.4 939.5 271.3 320.3 60.9 1245.1 401.1 450.1 7543.7
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 523.9 133.9 49.1 72.7 4.0 378.6 82.9 7.4 1320.2
Week Ago 496.1 142.8 55.7 62.5 3.5 406.8 69.5 8.3 1292.4
To Date 14024.0 3280.8 1995.9 2737.4 204.3 13374.3 2797.2 257.9 41227.5
Year Ago 14393.2 2830.4 1539.7 2551.7 242.1 12205.1 2322.4 372.9 39294.0
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 344.8 99.0 0.3 2.9 0.0 235.2 56.6 1.0 791.4
Week Ago 349.4 71.5 0.1 5.5 0.0 238.1 29.6 1.5 760.2
To Date 11481.5 3665.3 339.6 1375.3 72.4 7041.2 1663.0 131.7 29817.6
Year Ago 13088.3 2572.0 301.7 1592.3 76.0 6588.6 1258.9 872.9 31706.2
EXPORTS
This Week 352.1 37.2 19.5 0.9 0.9 150.2 55.5 0.0 642.6
Week Ago 317.4 184.9 41.6 17.9 0.6 335.4 19.7 0.0 1029.3
To Date 10045.8 3182.3 1123.1 1444.2 103.1 6316.0 1666.6 12.5 27054.7
Year Ago 11693.2 2386.7 1051.4 1703.5 150.3 6233.3 1278.1 936.2 29296.5
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 93.7 13.7 16.5 34.1 0.9 206.3 3.1 8.7 402.3
Week Ago 58.9 4.3 13.9 34.3 0.4 217.1 2.7 8.5 361.8
To Date 2661.4 248.3 470.7 1076.2 31.9 6857.3 151.1 409.3 13018.4
Year Ago 2621.3 220.6 195.9 729.8 37.6 5970.9 137.4 769.6 12378.5
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
+57 May
+145 May
+67 May
+60 May
+12 May
N/A
May
+57 May
+72 May
+60 May

June
+53 July
+72 July
+55 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 2
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 435.10 -30.00 May 2020 dn 1.70
Basis: Thunder Bay 473.50 10.00 May 2020 dn 1.60
Basis: Vancouver 488.50 25.00 May 2020 dn 1.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 582.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
May 577.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 560.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 535.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 535.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 585.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
May 580.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 562.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 537.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 537.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 605.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 565.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,400.00 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 180.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3550)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 333,503 lots, or 15.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 4,867 4,885 4,781 4,848 4,840 4,823 -17 182,103 78,202
Jul-20 4,732 4,774 4,692 4,730 4,721 4,730 9 149 316
Sep-20 4,563 4,567 4,464 4,535 4,556 4,523 -33 147,739 74,147
Nov-20 4,167 4,220 4,150 4,186 4,177 4,184 7 25 340
Jan-21 4,107 4,109 4,025 4,057 4,089 4,071 -18 3,486 20,372
Mar-21 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,145 4,100 -45 1 26
Corn
Turnover: 392,895 lots, or 7.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 1,979 1,986 1,974 1,979 1,980 1,978 -2 42,778 232,300
Jul-20 2,011 2,017 2,006 2,007 2,013 2,010 -3 21,637 57,359
Sep-20 2,035 2,039 2,028 2,033 2,035 2,033 -2 309,144 747,278
Nov-20 2,054 2,055 2,046 2,048 2,054 2,050 -4 4,011 7,091
Jan-21 2,064 2,074 2,063 2,067 2,072 2,069 -3 13,368 60,816
Mar-21 2,086 2,089 2,078 2,082 2,086 2,084 -2 1,957 1,278
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,838,363 lots, or 51.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 2,831 2,831 2,772 2,774 2,834 2,793 -41 319,434 437,201
Jul-20 2,817 2,817 2,756 2,765 2,809 2,775 -34 94,957 93,216
Aug-20 2,804 2,830 2,786 2,792 2,836 2,802 -34 37,326 7,721
Sep-20 2,830 2,837 2,799 2,805 2,842 2,814 -28 1,319,312 1,683,612
Nov-20 2,850 2,850 2,818 2,823 2,852 2,833 -19 17,244 7,245
Dec-20 2,841 2,876 2,840 2,849 2,874 2,858 -16 30 309
Jan-21 2,860 2,863 2,821 2,833 2,857 2,841 -16 49,968 158,895
Mar-21 2,822 2,828 2,796 2,800 2,834 2,808 -26 92 392
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,122,692 lots, or 53.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-20 – – – 4,598 4,598 4,598 0 0 0
May-20 4,938 4,960 4,782 4,808 4,878 4,834 -44 596,964 124,290
Jun-20 4,956 5,002 4,896 4,924 4,986 4,928 -58 22 19
Jul-20 4,762 4,886 4,738 4,840 4,884 4,798 -86 328 8
Aug-20 – – – 4,832 4,918 4,832 -86 0 4
Sep-20 4,756 4,776 4,618 4,660 4,698 4,676 -22 517,872 233,611
Oct-20 4,746 4,750 4,688 4,692 4,694 4,706 12 9 7
Nov-20 – – – 4,800 4,800 4,800 0 0 6
Dec-20 4,824 4,824 4,824 4,824 4,796 4,824 28 1 155
Jan-21 4,820 4,844 4,700 4,738 4,774 4,764 -10 7,494 20,561
Feb-21 4,996 4,996 4,798 4,798 4,906 4,896 -10 2 5
Mar-21 – – – 4,862 4,862 4,862 0 0 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 438,636 lots, or 23.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-20 5,478 5,478 5,340 5,368 5,350 5,378 28 96,384 139,570
Jul-20 – – – 5,406 5,406 5,406 0 0 267
Aug-20 – – – 5,482 5,482 5,482 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,500 5,532 5,424 5,458 5,432 5,460 28 336,906 425,013
Nov-20 5,542 5,546 5,456 5,484 5,424 5,508 84 12 678
Dec-20 5,512 5,512 5,512 5,512 5,602 5,512 -90 1 14
Jan-21 5,624 5,640 5,530 5,566 5,530 5,564 34 5,333 31,789
Mar-21 – – – 5,520 5,520 5,520 0 0 3
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.