Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are down by as much as 5 1/4 cents in the front months. Private exporters reported a sale 567,000 MT of corn to China. Delivery for the sale is spilt with 504,000 MT for 2020/21 delivery and the remaining 69,000 for old crop. Census data showed February corn exports were 154.17 mbu. That was a 57% increase over January exports and 8.3% higher yr/yr. MYTD exports through Feb totaled 619 mb, that is 35.9% of the USDA forecasted 1.725 bbu. Compared to last year when corn exports through Feb totaled 47.5% of the forecasted. Argentina was 22.2% harvested through April 1st; the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasts 50 MMT of production. March corn exports from Brazil were 494,600 MT which was down 332,100 MT yr/yr. Ethanol exports from Brazil totaled 75.1m L in March, which was a 41.5% drop off yr/yr.

May 20 Corn is at $3.28 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents,

Jul 20 Corn is at $3.34 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Sep 20 Corn is at $3.40, down 2 cents,

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.49, down 3/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Midday trading in the soy market has May beans 7 1/2 cents lower, while the other front months are trading with 4 to 6 1/2 cent losses. Soymeal futures are down by $8.50/ton in May. Bean oil futures are up by 20 points. NASS revised February soybean crush to 175.26 mbu, 6.3 mbu lower than the number released on Wednesday. That is still a record for the month. Official soybean exports for the month of Feb were 101.37 mbu, down 4.5% from January but 10.17% higher yr/yr. The BA Grain Exchange lowered their forecast for Argentine soybeans to 49.5 MMT citing lower than expected yields. Brazil shipped 11.64 MMT of beans in March, which was a 35.5% boost from March ’19. FCStone projects Brazilian soybean output at 120.1 MMT, which is a 4 MMT cut from last month citing unfavorably hot and dry conditions.

May 20 Soybeans are at $8.51 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans are at $8.57 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans are at $8.59 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans are at $8.58 1/2, down 4 cents,

May 20 Soybean Meal is at $300.60, down $8.50

May 20 Soybean Oil is at $26.44, up $0.20

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



After closing 5 to 11 cents lower on Thursday, wheat is trading 5 to 6 cents higher so far on Friday. SRW wheat futures are 6 1/2 cents higher in May, with May KC wheat back up by 6 3/4 cents. May Spring wheat futures are 5 1/4 cents higher. Weekly wheat export bookings were 72,900 MT (2.679 mbu). HRW wheat sales were 74% of the total, and white wheat was 52% of the week’s sales. There was a net of 24,934 MT of HRS wheat bookings canceled on the week. All wheat commitments for old crop were 1.89% higher yr/yr with 24.783 MMT. CENSUS data from February showed that US wheat exports were 80.25 mbu, which was 17% above Jan but down 3% from February 2019.

May 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.48 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

May 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.70 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents,

May 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.24 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



After falling by the expanded limits on Thursday, the front month futures are down another $0.45 to $3.87. April options expire today, with a huge range of pin candidates in play. Feeder futures are down another $1.95 to $2.62 at midday. The April 1 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $126.09, down by $3.73. Cash trades have slowed this week since limited activity around $112 - $113 earlier. Official February beef exports from Census were 257 million lbs, which was a record for Feb, and 4.9% above Jan shipments. Japan was the top destination for the month’s beef exports with 75.1 mbu, that was a 32% increase yr/yr. South Korea saw the largest mo/mo increase in beef shipments, up 32% from January beef exports to 62.6m lbs. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower in the morning update widening the Chc/Sel spread to $10.94. Choice boxes were down by $0.69 to $231.95 cwt. and Select boxes were $1.11 lower at $221.01 cwt. Federally Inspected cattle slaughter through Thursday was estimated at 467,000 head. That was 17,000 head behind last week and 15,000 head behind the same week last year.

Apr 20 Cattle are at $88.950, down $3.875,

Jun 20 Cattle are at $81.725, down $1.350,

Aug 20 Cattle are at $84.150, down $0.450,

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle are at $108.725, down $1.950

May 20 Feeder Cattle are at $109.025, down $2.625

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle are at $115.075, down $2.575

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures continue to fall, with the Jun contracts already at the expanded limit threshold. April is $2.65 lower so far. The April 1 CME Lean Hog Index was another $1.38 lower to $63.08, nearly $20 premium to April futures with just 10 trade session until expiration. The 04/03 National Average Morning Base Hog price was $42.83, which was down by $1.75. Monthly pork shipments were 658.2 million lbs in Feb. Each of the last 9 months were a respective monthly record, with December shipments the all-time high for any month. China was again the top destination for the monthly pork exports, with 192.5 million lbs. Pork exports to Japan were up 12% from their January numbers. The Pork Carcass Cutout Value was back up by $1.51 to $60.72 cwt. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for the week through Thursday at 1.948 million head. That was 42,000 head below last week’s pace.

Apr 20 Hogs are at $42.050, down $2.650,

May 20 Hogs are at $41.775, down $3.700

Jun 20 Hogs are at $48.325, down $4.500

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton is up 68 to 96 points on Friday trading so far. The dollar is stronger, and equity futures are modestly lower. Census data for February cotton exports totaled 1.97 million (480-lb) bales. That was 32.7% above Feb ’19. USDA’s GAIN report released initial estimates on India’s 2020/21 cotton crop at 28.78 million (480 lb) bales. That would be a 2% drop in production yr/yr, citing a decline in harvested acreage. The April 2 Cotlook A index was back down to 59.15 c/lb, 235 points lower. The AWP for cotton was lowered to 42.63 cents/lb. The LDP increased to 9.37 cents/lb, and both are in effect through next Thursday.

May 20 Cotton is at 50.67, up 68 points,

Jul 20 Cotton is at 50.72, up 96 points

Oct 20 Cotton is at 51.02, unch

Dec 20 Cotton is at 52.01, up 89 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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